When we previously looked at the Additive Chicken coop, we saw how selling devices to labs shaped a lot of our industry. Here, we explore other key factors that have led to the industry’s current state.
Piggybacking on Lasers
An increase in the capabilities of low-cost lasers and new diode laser forms is the real driving force behind many developments in LPBF and SLA. Vat polymerization can hardly have existed at scale without the Texas Instruments DMD mirror setup. In parallel strides forward, Scanlab, Visitech, and others have done a lot of the heavy lifting to make new print platforms possible. They’ve centralized a lot of the truly hard science into convenient, mountable packaging. Low-cost lasers are now enabling companies such as Metal Base to produce sub-$10,000 metal LPBF printers. This is a continuation of the same wave that previously enabled Sinterit, Sintratec, and Formlabs to make polymer LPBF systems accessible. Further cost decreases could prompt many more LPBF entrants. In inkjet processes, it’s the billions from inkjet-head firms that drive much of the functionality. Now, this is not anything new for anyone reading this.
But we keep looking at the individual machines too much while not focusing enough on the broader technological developments driving our industry. We should pay more attention to developments in light engines and less to machine releases, for example. We’re counting the cup holders and ignoring electrification.
Value Propositions and Diggers
Yes, the parts from low-cost metal 3D printers are not as good as those from an industrial system. That’s not the point, your shovel can not dig as well as a Liebherr R9800. But your shovel is cheaper, easier to transport by air, and easier to use indoors. It’s all about the use case, the user, and the value proposition. Many people want accessible metal parts. But what we don’t know yet is if the quality and cost as is will be enough to entice them. In and of itself, this value proposition will depend on understanding that we do not yet have. So do not dismiss the parts offhand. Or make the mistake of thinking that this won’t work for you, so it won’t work for anyone.
A LEGO-built Liebherr R9800 excavator model representing heavy construction machinery. Image courtesy of LEGO.
But also don’t make the mistake of thinking that because industrial polymer LPBF sells, desktop systems will do 10 times as well. A desktop Liebherr R9800 also will not work unless it’s by LEGO, of course. But the LEGO R9800 shares the exact same look and functions as the larger (800 tonne) one, but it offers a very distinct value proposition. Forgetting this is a mistake many have made before.
So, who is doing the selling matters? When matters as well. To whom you are selling matters too. Our minds are trained to recognize patterns in the noise. We tend to make up logical (often simplistic) narratives to explain a chaotic world. And we extrapolate. One of the biggest mistakes made across many innovative sectors is to compare Apples to Oranges and then infer a business model from a similar development. We often end up trapped in our analogies, prisoners of childish tales meant to explain the world, but that inhibit true understanding.
Scope
Brian Michel with a Skyward 150 3D printed telescope in his Guelph home. His plans to build the telescope are available for free. Image courtesy of Mathew McCarthy, Waterloo Region Record.
Scale matters, perhaps more than we thought. But scope matters too. Everyone is always talking about scaling, but “scope” is used only in the sense of “scope creep.” To truly reassess the scope and to redefine the business is rarely done. We did market research in 2015 and set off based on that. We defined our target markets and never checked back to see if that had changed. We never responded to changes in the world or technology. We don’t serve those customers. Across businesses, we see many problems with this. But, in additive, we can see that many companies need to reassess their scope according to the new world. Yes, you can pivot to the newest thing or approach a new market. But, if you change nothing else and do not reinitiate learning mode, you´ll just be a trend-driven drunken sailor staggering from one management fad to another. Rather than pivoting, businesses should rescope themselves to see whether the total of their assumptions and actions is even coherent. Maybe we have to change how we operate, which countries we target, and how we target them.
Because we’re sufficiently cognizant of our history, we’ve probably misunderstood our current situation. By not focusing enough on the parts of the printer that actually make the shape, we do not sufficiently understand how light sources and other technological developments will shape us. We often lack empathy to see how others may perceive or need goods and services differently than we do. And we need to reassess the scope from time to time to remain focused. All of these elements are important to see what is truly going on.